The start of the 2013-14 NFL season is upon us. As usual I will be making my picks for each
of the games each week and posting them with some of my personal insight and
thoughts. As always feel free to agree
or disagree in the comments section. I have
joked in the past that I was practicing this for my new career as a Vegas
betting man, but I’m not so sure, based on my previous experience. If you by chance do use my picks and make
some money, send a check. Let’s get to
some football,……
Baltimore @ Denver
– First game of the season and lots of question marks for both teams. Baltimore comes in as the reigning Super Bowl
champs but they have been stripped down from retirements, defections, business
decisions and injuries. Interestingly
enough this team is all Joe Flacco’s now. No Ray Lewis (no matter what you
think of his speeches) and no Ed Reed now give this team a more ‘offensive’
feel. Flacco has got to be consistently good this year although he’s going to
be lacking in talent around him. Dumervil
was a Bronco, but after a contract miscue, he became a Raven. I imagine that he
should have a pretty good game against his old mates, but will it be
enough.
The Broncos have been hit with numerous issues over the
off-season from management issues to losing players, to both injury and
suspension. The bright spot is that
Manning is still under center and has some more weapons on the offensive side
of the ball. They have even joked about
running some run option stuff with Manning as the QB (every defensive end in
the league salivated when they heard that).
Manning and his offense will have to carry this team for a few weeks and
he’s used to that, so it’ll come down to whether the defense can stop the
Ravens. Tony Carter is going to have to
step up at CB and help stop Torrey Smith (DRC might take him the entire
game). But I also look for Shaun
Phillips to show us whether he needs to hang it up or if he can be a solid fill
in until Von Miller returns. Winner –
Ravens.
Tampa Bay @ New York
Jets – No Sanchez, so the rookie Geno Smith gets the start. Geno’s ankle should be fully healed and that
should allow him to be at his best. What
is his best might be the question. Every
rookie QB needs a running game, but the Jets really don’t have a stud in the backfield. Don’t really have any receivers because I’m
not expecting Holmes to play,…and it just doesn’t sound good for the
rookie. To me his only hope is to keep
them in this game for as long as he can and make some plays with his legs. They aren’t going up against a juggernaut,
but this should be tough sledding for the Jets.
Tampa Bay is a few years removed from actually being that
team on the upswing. Josh Freeman seems
to have taken several steps backwards in his growth and it hurts my heart
because the kid has talent. He’s also
got some pieces on offense that can help him out, so it’s really about getting
them the ball and making good decisions.
Josh Freeman, I need for you to step it up this year, in a big way. Winner
– Bucs.
New England @ Buffalo
– Now this ought to be good. The
Patriots have retooled on both sides of the ball, but they still have that dude
under center that makes it that much easier to keep winning no matter what. Brady will have a slew of young receivers and
will be without both of his start tight ends.
The funny thing is that I’m not sure that even matters that much. Brady will be Brady and usually that’s enough
to get the Patriots a win.
The Bills were contemplating starting me at QB for week 1,
but I’ll be in church early that morning and wouldn’t be able to make it to the
field on time. In my stead, EJ Manuel
gets his first start (of many) for the Bills.
EJ has looked good in pre-season and again, will rely on his two running
backs Spiller and Jackson to make his first soirée into the NFL a good
one. The Patriots on defense normally
scheme well and try and take something away from you, so I expect them to
concentrate on the run and make the rookie beat them with his arm. Should be fun to watch. Winner
– Patriots.
Cincinatti @ Chicago
– This is the year for the Bears. Seems
like half the team are free agents after this year with the #1 priority on Jay
Cutler. Cutler isn’t the best QB, but
he’s better than what the Bears have had in years. He’s also in a good position; let’s call it
the Flacco position, of being in the final year of his deal. The Bears have a decision to make, pay Cutler
that approximately $20M per year or blow it up and start all over again. The Bears are cheap, but I doubt they blow it
up and start all over. Look for a big
year from not only Cutler, but Forte too.
The Bengals come into this game as the favorites and they
should be a team to be reckoned with this year.
They have a good defensive line, they are pretty solid everywhere else on
their defense and they have an offense that can put up some numbers (Green) or
pound you to death (BGE). Can the
Bengals put it together this year, especially with the Steelers
hurting?!!? Good place to start would be
in Chicago. Winner – Bengals.
Miami @ Cleveland
– Miami has some new duds and some new dudes, but will it matter at the end of
the day? Tannehill at QB makes this team average at best and add to that, they
really have no offensive talent, except for Wallace. I do like the right side of this Dolphins
defensive line in Soliai and Wake, but we’ll see who else steps up. The addition of Ellerbee makes this defense solid. Can they score enough points to stay in a
game?
The Browns are,…well the Browns. Weeden made strides last season but to me
he’s limited as far as his ceiling is concerned, but he always looks better
when he has Richardson running well. I
do wonder who will step up as the Browns 3rd receiver, well actually
their 2nd receiver too, but that’s another issue. Browns defense really has no holes and should
be one of the better ones in the league this year. Winner
– Browns.
Atlanta @ New Orleans
– The Falcons were thisclose to making it to the Super Bowl and they should be
on a mission again this year. They
didn’t lose much and they actually picked up Seven Jackson who still has some
tread on his tires. The bad of that is
that Jackson looks like he’s become one with some of that southern cooking and
looks to have put on some pounds. Matt
Ryan has a full complement of receiving targets and he’s one of those guys that
should have an easy road paved to at least an MVP, lots of weapons.
Drew Brees and the Saints are back yet again. We know that as long as they keep Brees
upright and protected he can put up some points. The receiving corp is a little beat up but
hopefully some of the young guns (Toon, Tanner and Stills) and the return of
Meachem can solve that problem. *Homer
Alert* I am wishing my cousin (Nick Toon) a fruitful and successful year in NO
and may he catch at least 50 balls this year from that Drew Brees guy. Winner
– Falcons.
Tennessee @
Pittsburgh – A few years ago this would have been a good matchup but right
now both of these teams are struggling and going in the opposite
direction. The Titans come in with a
young Jake Locker under center and a few pieces on offense that he can really
count on. Britt doesn’t start the year
off suspended and Chris Johnson may be all the way back and ready for a 2000
yard rushing season, just maybe. Defense
should be solid, but this year the Titans ride or die on Locker. If he can make teams pay for putting extra in
the box to stop Johnson, this team should scare some people.
The Steelers are looking like they are going downhill. They are getting older and if pre-season is
any foreshadowing of the future, Big Ben won’t be around much this year. That offensive line has played horribly and
all I can see in my mind is Ben taking some big hits. Even if the line gets it together, the
Steelers running game, normally a staple, just isn’t there. When you pick up Felix Jones late in the
pre-season and he could possibly start for you, that pretty much says it
all. Steelers need Heath Miller healthy
soon and maybe this can all turn around quickly. Winner
– Steelers.
Minnesota @ Detroit
– I will leave all of the city of Detroit slander out of this. The Lions have retooled and have spry looking
Reggie Bush who has said that this team could win it all. I guess he’s not lying because I could hit
the lottery, but what are the odds.
Stafford needs to stay healthy and some WR besides Calvin Johnson needs
to have more than 50 receptions this year.
The defense will be a threat as long as they have those two big boys
upfront in Fairley and Suh, and I do like the pickup of former Bears DE
Idonije. Let’s just say that I wouldn’t
want to be an offense facing this defense in too many 2nd or 3rd
and long situations.
The Vikings are, Adrian Peterson. As good as he is and as well as he has played
since being in the league, it’s really not up to him as it relates to this team
winning games. That falls squarely on on
Christian Ponder. If the Vikings can get
some quality starts out of the kid, then APs 1950 yard season (see what I did
there) won’t go to waste. We are going to
see if Greg Jennings to help Ponder and be that possession receiver he
needs. On the defensive side of the ball
the Vikings are solid and Jared Allen is saying he’s pain free, so we’ll see if
he can get back in that sack race this year.
Winner – Lions.
Oakland @
Indianapolis – This has been a long time coming, but for some the Terrelle
Pryor Era starts in Oakland this Sunday.
Hey, I hoping the kid plays well, but he’s got a long way to go to be a
regular NFL starter. He’s got legs which
will keep him alive behind that offensive offensive line (see what I did
there?), but he’s going to have to use his arm.
He has a rather young receiving corp, but I think he has some talent to
work with. Unfortunately the Raiders
defensive side of the ball doesn’t look that much better. I like the additions of Roach and Woodson
(how old is Woodson again?), but they need some help or some people to really
step up.
The Colts are one of the feel good teams from last year and
they seem to be ready to take another step ahead. I think last year it came down to consistency
and I think another year under center will be a better one for Luck. He’ll have his favorite blanket in Reggie
Wayne, but he also has other options in Heyward-Bey and watch out for that T.Y.
Hilton kid. This offense could be
explosive this year. On defense Robert
Mathis is still in the trenches and the defense may not wow many, but they are
a solid crew. Winner – Colts.
Seattle @ Carolina
– This one sounds like it’ll be a good game.
The Seahawks, led by their 2nd year QB Russell Wilson will
fly cross country to meet the Panthers.
Seattle brings a multi-faceted offense that has enough wrinkles in it to
scare just about any defensive coordinator and a defense that can provide just
as many problems. I hope (for fantasy
reasons) that Wilson finds Sidney Rice a little more this year. Rice can be a mismatch in short yardage or
near goal line situations because of his height and leaping ability, so let’s
try and leverage those skills, please. (Funny
Note: One of my boys made a bet with a group of us that within 3 years the
Seahawks will be looking for a new QB because Wilson isn’t the long term
answer. Just waiting to collect on this one)
The Panthers are in a good spot with young Cameron at
QB. With that said, he’s got to be more
consistent and he’s going to have to lead this team. Cam probably played as well as he could last
year for the first few games, but then something went wrong, and no I don’t
believe that the defenses ‘figured’ him out.
The addition of Tedd Ginn may provide Cam with another target that can
make some things happen for this team.
On defense the Panthers will have one of the better defensive lines in
football. Yes, one of the better
ones. If the offense can get clicking,
this should be a very interesting game. Winner – Seahawks.
Kansas City @
Jacksonville – The Andy Reid Era starts in KC (that will mean a lot of pass
plays on 3rd and short, I’m just saying). The good, well Jamal Charles will probably be
a fantasy beast and some people actually think that Smith will be good this
season, so the Chiefs, along with a good defense should be pretty good this
year. The bad, well, Alex Smith is their
QB. I don’t trust him, never have and
never will. (A joke I saw on twitter comes to mind: I trust (insert QB name)
about as much as I trust a stripper with paw print tattoos on her bottom. This
is sage advice here). The offense should
be fun to watch if Smith can make some things happen. If he doesn’t there’s always Chase Daniel.
Jacksonville is….just a city in Florida and someone needed a
tax write off. Of course there is MJD,
but I’m not sure which QB is better between Gabbert (Yo Gabba Gabba) and
Henne. The question I have is will this
be Justin Blackmon’s breakout year or will we be waiting for this to happen
next year? Can anyone name 4 starters on
defense for the Jaguars without googling the info? You can get two easily, but
the others,….well,….we’ll see how they play.
Winner – Chiefs.
Arizona @ St. Louis
– Teams are doing a good job reclaiming old QBs and bringing them in for their
final few years. So the Cardinals
brought in Carson Palmer who I think still has some tread on his tires and now
he has a #1 guy to throw to in Fitzgerald.
If this team can protect Palmer and find some semblance of a running
game, they could be decent. On defense
the Cardinals are going to be rather solid because of Dansby, Acho, Peterson,
and Docket.
The Rams are a new look team. They have a stingy defense but now add Tavon
Austin to the mix to help Bradford make this passing game more exciting. If Bradford can stay healthy, watch out for
this team. They could be one of the
sleepers in the NFC. Winner – Cardinals.
Green Bay @ San
Francisco – I would love to see this game late in the season with the
playoffs on the line. Instead we get
this game 1 and it still should be a good one.
The 49ers come off of a close loss to the Ravens in the Superbowl, but
they come back fully loaded and no concern about who will be the starting
QB. Kaepernick will have a target on his
back from not only his off-season wardrobe choices, but he’ll also be trying to
prove that this whole new breed of QB is here to stay. He gained a weapon from that Ravens team in
Boldin, but they were already loaded.
Did I mention that the 49ers offensive line is still bigger than most,
if not all, in the NFL. Defense is going
to be outrageous.
Green Bay is lucky enough to have one of the QB gawds in
Rodgers under center, so they’ll probably be ok as long as this crippled
offensive line keeps his jersey clean. I
also dare to say that the Packers have a threat in Eddie Lacy, although a
rookie, at the RB spot. They haven’t had
a complete back like that in a while.
Scary to think that their entire year could largely depend on his
production and ability to pick up blitzes.
Packers defense is best when they play from ahead, so let’s hope that
the offense can keep scoring points. Winner – 49ers.
New York Giants @
Dallas – I always start the year, well at least for the last few, where I
point out just how good the Giants front 4 (or 7) really is. Then they go out and make me look bad by not
performing. Because I’m a glutton for
punishment I am going to go out on a limb again this year and tell you that the
Giants have one of the top 3 defensive lines in the NFL. With Cullen Jenkins able to get pressure from
the interior, that makes Tuck, Herzlich and Kiwanuka that much tougher to
block. On offense they have the steady Eli manning the ship and that’s enough
for 9 wins, at least.
The Romo led Cowboys start the year again with so many
expectations and actually they have a pretty scary team. As usual, it’s all on Romo. He’s a good player for the majority of a
game, but then when you need him, he makes those one or two mistakes that make
you want to hunt him down and hurt him.
They may not even be ‘his’ mistakes, but they sure do look bad when they
do happen. He’s got Austin, Murray,
Witten and Bryant, so he’s got people around him that can pick up the slack and
make plays for him. Limit the bad
decisions and he just may be the MVP of the league. Winner
– Giants.
Houston @ San Diego
– This is the other Monday Night Game,….ho hum.
The Texans are the team that some are saying are headed to the Super
Bowl this year for the AFC. I’m not sold on that just yet. Their offense is Johnson and Foster and the
health of Matt Schaub. Seemed like last
year the Texans just had too many injuries to really to make a move late in the
season and for some reason, I just think that they will go through the same
thing again. I am not wishing it on them,
but that’s what I see for them.
The Chargers are somewhat starting over, but it’s nice to
‘start over’ with Mathews and Rivers as options. The offense has not really been the problem
in the past for the Chargers, but Rivers uncanny ability to snatch victory out
of the jaws of defeat with some turnovers just leaves this team in tough
situations from time to time. Can they
fix this and stay consistent? I’m just
not sure and I’m not betting with Rivers.
Winner – Texans.
Philadelphia @
Washington – This is the game everyone is waiting for. The new look Eagles against the hopefully
healthy Washington team (I’m all for not mentioning that name until they change
it). The Eagles are on the last ride for
Vick and not just his contract but his legacy.
If he falters, he’ll get cut by the beginning of next year, but if he
shows out, it puts the Eagles in a tougher spot as it relates to backups. Chip Kelly’s offense will get a tough test
but if they can keep Vick clean and he uses that blessed arm he has, this could
be a magical ride for the Eagles.
The team from Washington gets a healthy RGIII back and I
think they pick up where they started off last year. Decent running game, which includes RGIII,
but a good passing game and some health is what they really need. The defense is getting older, but Kerrigan
and Arakbo will be able to make plays this year if Cofield and Bowen can get
pressure up front. The team from
Washington will be more than solid and should look for playoff berth. Winner
– Eagles.
Who ya with?!?!?!?!?
